Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 4.167330 4.987912 5.900373 6.986326 8.239422 9.635774 11.305101
2025-03-16 2.754750 3.787513 5.072255 6.769657 8.932809 11.575214 15.022225
2025-03-23 2.113613 3.271743 4.854475 7.130713 10.267477 14.378370 20.101905
2025-03-30 1.615068 2.785223 4.524784 7.218487 11.185507 16.697144 24.788798
2025-04-06 1.253727 2.390201 4.214594 7.232059 11.940911 18.818310 29.375716
2025-04-13 0.986317 2.067793 3.932741 7.208297 12.591697 20.807353 33.916538
2025-04-20 0.876383 1.988487 4.022221 7.771231 14.190699 24.329222 40.996701
2025-04-27 0.742923 1.827805 3.932961 8.004588 15.262021 27.110313 47.153156
2025-05-04 0.644091 1.710035 3.895451 8.311857 16.473655 30.197608 54.006060
2025-05-11 0.532577 1.533392 3.707353 8.304460 17.119457 32.390049 59.558391
2025-05-18 0.419886 1.320049 3.399916 8.012812 17.202934 33.617305 63.579066
2025-05-25 0.323799 1.116650 3.069511 7.616124 17.028716 34.358141 66.798442
2025-06-01 0.265016 0.997182 2.910690 7.567313 17.546526 36.422087 72.552892
2025-06-08 0.211803 0.874801 2.718967 7.417225 17.847397 38.122289 77.809373
2025-06-15 0.192318 0.852122 2.774333 7.838458 19.371832 42.235066 87.707986
2025-06-22 0.163567 0.786831 2.702190 7.944831 20.233909 45.135692 95.549664
2025-06-29 0.136760 0.717061 2.601383 7.963579 20.902914 47.703142 102.924271
2025-07-06 0.113385 0.649690 2.491170 7.939201 21.468412 50.099351 110.114328
2025-07-13 0.108691 0.659143 2.616907 8.551032 23.551006 55.716137 123.850361
2025-07-20 0.096285 0.628717 2.610164 8.804493 24.817451 59.729730 134.661672
2025-07-27 0.086886 0.608169 2.631347 9.137923 26.304999 64.300065 146.819823
2025-08-03 0.072962 0.557292 2.537346 9.129926 26.960211 67.144564 155.668431
2025-08-10 0.057112 0.485367 2.348881 8.813524 26.812988 68.242892 161.024490